5 Facts About the UK Terror Threat Level You Need to Know

The UK terror threat level has been one of the most discussed topics over the past few years, especially after the tragic events at Westminster Bridge and Manchester Arena.

The threat level is an indication of how likely it is that a terrorist attack will occur in the future.

But what does this actually mean, and how are these levels triggered?

I’ll go through it all below, so here’s five facts you need to know about the UK terror threat level.

Below is a handy table of contents. Clicking on any of the article headers below will jump you straight to the place on this page you are interested in.

Table of Contents

1. What Does The UK Terror Threat Level Mean?

The UK terror threat level is an indication of how likely it is that a terrorist attack will occur in the future.

It is one of the most discussed topics on the news and online, and shapes not only the UK’s readiness and response models, but also our own ability to freely move around the UK.

A higher terror threat will usually mean enhanced search and screening at large events such as football games, concerts and anywhere large gatherings occur, like Christmas markets for example.

There are 5 threat levels:

LOW means an attack is highly unlikely
MODERATE means an attack is possible, but not likely
SUBSTANTIAL means an attack is likely
SEVERE means an attack is highly likely
CRITICAL means an attack is highly likely in the near future

The current UK terror threat is: SUBSTANTIAL

This level has been in place since 2021, downgraded from Severe after detailed analysis from JTAC.

2. How is the UK terror threat level determined?

The threat level is decided by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Center (JTAC), a group of officials from different government departments.

The threat level is based on a number of factors, including the level of activity from terrorist groups and the intelligence they have on specific threats.

JTAC meets several times every year to decide whether the threat level should be increased or lowered.

There are a number of factors that are considered before making this decision, including the level of police activity.

If there is an increase in the level of arrests or the amount of online chatter from terrorist groups, this may prompt JTAC to increase the threat level.

3. What is the current UK terror threat level?

The current UK terror threat level is “Substantial”, meaning that an attack is likely.

The last attack was the Liverpool Hospital Bombing, in November 2021.

4. Why is the UK terrorism threat level sometimes lowered?

As the threat level is a general indication of the risk of an attack, it is not always correct.

The threat level is constantly monitored, and can go up when the perceived threat goes up, and goes down when the perceived threat goes down.

A lot of the work that JTAC do are dependent on the work of security forces at home (like MI5) or abroad (MI6).

However, it also heavily relies on the international intelligence community, and needing a coherent and robust cross border approach to the sharing of information in a timely manner.

5. Potential consequences of raising the UK terror threat level

The UK terror threat level is an important indicator for the public, but it can also cause significant disruption to daily life, particularly for businesses.

This is because the threat level is taken into account by emergency services, such as the police, fire service, and ambulance service, when responding to emergency calls.

The police will often increase patrols in areas that are deemed to be at high risk, particularly during busy periods like Christmas and New Year.

Summary

The UK terror threat level is an indication of how likely it is that a terrorist attack will occur in the future.

The last attack was the Liverpool Hospital Bombing, in November 2021.

Terrorist attacks are rare. You shouldn’t forget that. Your chance of dying in a terrorist attack is 1 in a million, according to Cato.org.

The general public is also now far more aware of what to do in the event of an attack, like run, hide, tell, meaning lower numbers of deaths and casualties. They are also far more likely to report things that look out of place.

Threats posed by organised groups, such as Al-Qaeda, ISIS are substantially lower than in previous years, mainly due to the disruption caused by foreign interventions and intelligence agencies.

The biggest threat by far is by the so called ‘lone wolf’ attacker. This attacker will often plan, formulate and execute an attack with little or no outside help at all, making it extremely difficult for security forces to intercept.

The only upisde to lone wolf attackers is they often don’t have the skillsor resources to carry out such attacks we’ve seen in previous years by organised groups or cells.

Questions & Comments

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I’ll try my best to reply to each and every one of your questions, comments and suggestions.

Stay Safe. Stay Secure.